Lanarkshire North West: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Lanarkshire North West: Overview

Projection: LAB seat

Implied MP at 2017:Hugh Gaffney  (LAB)
County/Area:Glasgow area (Scotland)
Electorate:74,860
Turnout:63.1%

PartyImplied 2017 VotesImplied 2017 Share
LAB20,07942.5%
SNP18,38338.9%
CON7,75716.4%
LIB9682.0%
UKIP320.1%
OTH30.0%
LAB Majority1,6963.6%

See overview of other seats in Scotland.



Introduction

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Lanarkshire North West been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

More details of the calculation formulas are available.

Lanarkshire North West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015, Map © OpenStreetMap contributors

List of old seats forming part of Lanarkshire North West

The old seat(s) needed are:

Old seat: Airdrie and Shotts

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Airdrie and Shotts, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Airdrie and ShottsTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireAirdrie Central11,881Lanarkshire North1,5282,777105002,672007,082
North LanarkshireAirdrie North14,765Lanarkshire North2,0172,898138003,646008,699
North LanarkshireAirdrie South14,420Lanarkshire North;
Lanarkshire North East		2,2002,861291003,377008,729
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig514Lanarkshire North West7212850010900314
North LanarkshireFortissat11,127Lanarkshire North East1,5192,750128002,357006,754
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown3,498Lanarkshire North East4249153700654002,030
North LanarkshireMotherwell North3,312Lanarkshire North East4318645000594001,939
North LanarkshireMurdostoun4,131Lanarkshire North East6229024800883002,455
 Total63,648 8,81314,0958020014,2920038,002

The full details of these calculations are given on the Airdrie and Shotts seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Coatbridge, Chryston and BellshillTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill6,734Lanarkshire North West6381,86791001,718004,314
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig13,500Lanarkshire North West1,3793,528150003,565008,622
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South10,861Lanarkshire North West1,0683,104127002,909007,208
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West11,306Lanarkshire North West1,0263,641128002,562007,357
North LanarkshireCumbernauld North820Lanarkshire North111144140023000499
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown448Lanarkshire North East4414160012100312
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin15,540Lanarkshire North West1,9023,354261003,871009,388
North LanarkshireThorniewood11,630Lanarkshire North West1,1513,414145002,630007,340
 Total70,839 7,31919,1939220017,6060045,040

The full details of these calculations are given on the Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Glasgow East

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Glasgow East, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Glasgow EastTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
GlasgowBaillieston25,046Glasgow East2,6664,60523021505,502011313,331
GlasgowCalton4,586Glasgow East4311,068442909690232,564
GlasgowEast Centre5,637Glasgow East5671,298644901,1400283,146
GlasgowNorth East10,400Glasgow North East9542,464776802,0750265,664
GlasgowShettleston20,824Glasgow East2,1314,43715514104,235011311,212
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin419Lanarkshire North West667763010203257
 Total66,912 6,81513,949576505014,023030636,174

The full details of these calculations are given on the Glasgow East seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Motherwell and Wishaw

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Motherwell and Wishaw, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Motherwell and WishawTransfer-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		New SeatCON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill3,811Lanarkshire North West45596655290917002,422
North LanarkshireMossend and Holytown5,817Lanarkshire North East6651,532724901,346003,664
North LanarkshireMotherwell North9,897Lanarkshire North East1,2272,6011707902,202006,279
North LanarkshireMotherwell South East and Ravenscraig13,609Lanarkshire Mid1,5503,04716010103,242008,100
North LanarkshireMotherwell West10,056Lanarkshire North East1,5412,2881377802,499006,543
North LanarkshireMurdostoun10,246Lanarkshire North East1,3842,0691298402,510006,176
North LanarkshireWishaw14,076Lanarkshire Mid;
Lanarkshire North East		1,6683,32919811303,433008,741
 Total67,512 8,49015,832921533016,1490041,925

The full details of these calculations are given on the Motherwell and Wishaw seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Lanarkshire North West

The new seat of Lanarkshire North West is made up of the following wards, with the transfer-adjusted votes shown.

New seat: Lanarkshire North West
DistrictWardElectorate
2017		Old Seat CON
Votes		LAB
Votes		LIB
Votes		UKIP
Votes		Green
Votes		SNP
Votes		MIN
Votes		OTH
Votes		Total
Votes
North LanarkshireBellshill6,820Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill6381,86791001,718004,314
North LanarkshireBellshill3,941Motherwell and Wishaw45596655290917002,422
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig531Airdrie and Shotts7212850010900314
North LanarkshireCoatbridge North and Glenboig13,629Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1,3793,528150003,565008,622
North LanarkshireCoatbridge South11,393Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1,0683,104127002,909007,208
North LanarkshireCoatbridge West11,629Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1,0263,641128002,562007,357
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin14,842Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1,9023,354261003,871009,388
North LanarkshireStrathkelvin472Glasgow East667763010203257
North LanarkshireThorniewood11,603Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill1,1513,414145002,630007,340
 Total74,860 7,75720,07996832018,3830347,222

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Lanarkshire North West. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc574)